Karma Police, Arrest this Man
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DeAndre Jordan agreed to sign with the Mavericks. DeAndre Jordan agreed to sign with the Clippers. Both of those things were true at one point this offseason.
This story blew up to become the biggest talking point in sports for a week and served as an obituary for the 2015 NBA offseason. Shut it down indeed.
A quick recap: DeAndre agreed to terms on a deal that would make him a Dallas Maverick. After three days of sitting on his hands, he reached out to Blake Griffin and Doc Rivers. The story becomes infinitely more complicated from there, but it involves Chandler Parsons flying to Texas and tweeting an emoji, J.J. Redick driving to Houston and tweeting an emoji, Chris Paul cutting his vacation short and tweeting an emoji, and Blake Griffin locking DJ in his house and tweeting a picture of a makeshift barricade. Within 48 hours and several games of Spades, Jordan was once again a Clipper on a new 4 year deal with a player option.
That last note is interesting, because Jordan opted to forgo a potential fifth year that only Los Angeles could offer him. This means that the Clippers and Mavericks were essentially on equal footing. Why does this matter? After months of noise and speculation, Kevin Arnovitz came forward with a piece about a serious rift between Jordan and Clipper teammate Chris Paul. Paul has a reputation for doing this: he hasn’t won many friends with his domineering nature and unrelenting competitiveness.
And yet if the rift were truly as bad as reported, it’s unlikely Jordan would have seen a future for himself in Clipperland. Chris famously drove his banana boat back from the Bahamas to meet with DeAndre as the latter was having second thoughts. The team dynamic in Los Angeles may well have been problematic, but at this point to say any individual Clipper is at fault is a stretch.
We’ll never be clear on what exactly Jordan’s reasons were for coming back, but the story initially was that Dallas wooed him with promises of an expanded role and franchise player status. For reasons that should be clear to all involved, Jordan is not fit for that role, and if the Clippers made that angle a significant part of their pitch they could be in hot water. Jordan is not a post-up player, and every possession not dictated by Paul is a loss for the Clippers. DeAndre should understand he’s coming back to play his previous role, perhaps with an expanded spotlight.
That last part is important, because it seems unlikely that DeAndre has a true grasp on any of this. Maturity and lack of focus have been clear issues since well before he was drafted, and sadly this type of situation was rather predictable in hindsight. Doc Rivers infamously pushed Jordan to the forefront of the Defensive Player of the Year conversation, despite Jordan not actually doing much on the court to make him worthy of that praise. Ostensibly, Rivers was simply looking to build the young player’s confidence and get him to accept the role he fits on that team. That task could potentially become a lot harder now that DeAndre was offered franchise player status and received a maximum contract.
Jordan didn’t handle the situation like any reasonable adult would, but all of us have made mistakes. Mark Cuban has been vocal about the situation, of course, but before we allow him to paint himself as the victim we should consider his role in this saga. DeAndre is clearly a gullible guy, and from an outside perspective it’s hard not to feel like there was some manipulation happening. Cuban is very close friends with Jordan’s agent, Dan Fegan, and previous Fegan clients have had their names tied to Dallas in years past as well. Jordan’s family was reportedly unhappy with the process, although they were careful not to name names. That said, is it really a stretch, knowing everything we do about DeAndre, that he jumped into this decision without fully grasping what he was doing? That’s on him, of course, but it doesn’t mean every other party is innocent.
The Clippers make out well here, and while they likely become even bigger villains they managed to accomplish their primary offseason goal and lock in another year of title contention. They’ve made a legitimate effort to stock the bench, although at present that has consisted of signing an ex-Celtic and two players who were on the Rockets team that eliminated the Clippers this past season. This is a running joke with Doc, and while it’s a good thing he’s making moves, subtle things like this suggest he’s still not grown into his front office role.
It’s exciting that the Clippers now have a bench, but no one should be excited by said bench. Josh Smith is a good fit at power forward; he replicates a lot of Blake Griffin’s offensive skills and clearly has a few big games left in the tank. Reliability is always a concern, and it hasn’t been long since he was literally paid to leave a team, but he was a good pickup for Houston last season and should be a contributor here. Paul Pierce was the big offseason pick up, and he adds ball-handling and shooting to a roster starved of it. He plays best at the 4 now, which means redundancy with Smith, but small lineups featuring a Pierce and Jordan/Griffin front court could be disastrous for opposing defenses. Lance Stephenson was a good gamble, although he’s a proven headcase and has created chemistry issues everywhere he’s gone.
The Clippers are an improved team, but they have problems. There’s no clear starter at small forward, and Pierce is probably not the man for the job at this age. Between Lance, Smith, and Jamal Crawford, there’s plenty of crazy to go around and this bench is still a collection of misfit parts. Adding Cole Aldrich means they have a backup at every position, but some of these players just aren’t very good, especially Pablo Prigioni (another Houston castoff, surprise!). The Clippers desperately lack shooting, and both Smith and Lance were historically bad shooting the ball last season. Chris Paul is going to ride these guys hard, and it’s unclear how many of them are up for that.
The Clippers are an improved team, and at this point their ceiling is certainly contending for a title. It feels like there are a lot more question marks surrounding them now, though, and they haven’t broken into the truly elite tier of teams. They’ll have cap space next summer, and sometimes all you need is to be a really good team for a really long time and once or twice things will break in your favor. It worked for Dallas, and it can work for the Clippers.
This is What You Get When You Mess With Us
The Spurs nabbed LaMarcus Aldridge on a 3+1 year, $80 million contract in what will almost surely be the splashiest move of the offseason. Aldridge was unquestionably the biggest mover of this year’s free agency, and despite a late push from the flailing Phoenix Suns, the move seemed inevitable going in. In an offseason headlined by lockdowns, emojis, lavish spending, and hurt feelings, the Spurs simply got their guy. Everything goes according to plan.
Great teams come and go in cycles. The Collective Bargaining Agreement ensures that player contracts are short, movement is rapid and decisive, and no one team can afford to hold together a dynasty on the level of the 80s Celtics or 90s Bulls. But the Spurs have come damn close, and it’s a result of the organization that is now unquestionably the best in sports. In the span of four offseasons, the Spurs have drafted future superstar and current best defensive player in the league Kawhi Leonard and added another top 10 player through free agency to a core that has maintained a 60 win pace in 3 of the last 5 seasons and won a title with another Finals appearance along the way.
The Spurs lost in the first round in 2015, but that isn’t indicative of the quality of their team. They bowled through the second half of the season at a level matched only by the Warriors and Cavaliers, and were it not for a glitch in the seeding there’s little doubt we’d have seen another deep run by this team. Let’s not forget the clinic the Spurs ran in the 2014 playoffs; they were the single most dominant playoff team since the 2001 Lakers, and played at a level that matched any championship team Michael Jordan played for.
And here we go again.
San Antonio’s recent teams have given fans the sense they’re against star players; this really couldn’t be farther from the truth. San Antonio believes in their system, and despite the mantra of sharing there is room for a high volume scorer in that framework. Aldridge will certainly take a larger offensive role than any Spur over the last five years or so, but the groundwork for this was already being laid. The transition into the next era of Spurs basketball began in 2015 with the team taking the kid gloves off of Kawhi. Leonard was given essentially free reign to get his hands dirty and make mistakes, and by the end of the season he had morphed into a legitimate ball-handler and a guy who could run the offense for stretches. He faltered a bit in the playoffs, but this is a role he’s never held in his life and all indications are he’s going to take another step forward.
In Portland, Aldridge found himself the hub of Terry Stotts’ “Flow” offense, although a term like “Orbit” might more accurately describe what was going on there. LaMarcus was a possession-starter there, and Portland’s most effective sets featured lots of handoffs and motion around Aldridge hanging out in his favorite spots. Teams deathly feared that mid-range shot, so much so that Portland could get as many 3 point looks as they wanted. The Blazers were 3rd in 3 point attempts and 8th in 3 point percentage, and while they employ talented shooters it should be clear that that type of attack hinged on teams fearing Aldridge primarily as a scorer.
LaMarcus’ mediocre scoring efficiency as a 1st option is a concern, but only in a superficial sense. This is a guy who takes A LOT of midrange jumpers, and more importantly his team needed him to take those jumpers. Aldridge’s mid-post game was a safety valve when higher EV offensive sets broke down, and a guy who’s so talented at working from the worst areas of the court can lift the floor of your offense and enable looks that otherwise wouldn’t be there. Portland could’ve had him focus more on the block, but the smart coaches are realizing that post-ups, while necessary, are something to keep in your back pocket rather than a featured menu item. Aldridge is a versatile scorer who can burn you in a ton of ways, and he’s smart about leveraging that with his passes and screens. The reputation as a ball-stopper isn’t fair, and even a cursory examination of Portland’s sets show an unselfish guy who was willing to do the dirty work to enable his teammates. Look at how Portland uses Aldridge as a screener and passer to enable all sorts of funky cuts and flares:
Aldridge’s game will be different in San Antonio, too. The Spurs play an even more open style than the Blazers and realize the value of letting the ball do the work. Aldridge’s shot chart is going to look a lot more like a traditional finisher rather than an initiator. The Spurs have a ton of intriguing screen and roll men in Duncan, Diaw, and West, and San Antonio will likely feature these three as primary screeners because of the opportunities their passing on the roll opens up. If Aldridge spotting up on the weak side of a Parker-Duncan pick and roll sounds like an absolute nightmare to you, welcome to the 2016 Spurs experience. There’s so much danger to consider here: Aldridge shot 46% on catch and shoot jumpers, one of the best marks in the league. He’s even more dangerous diving to the rim, and in a system that emphasizes this action it’s a good bet we’ll see a lot of this. LaMarcus is a heady player who will likely spend a lot of time trawling the baseline as well, and if we’re lucky we’ll see an increase in 3 point volume too.
Aldridge has never played with the type of playmaking guards the Spurs can throw out, and those guards have never played with a threat like LaMarcus. It’s a match made in heaven. The LeBron Heat found their greatest success when they were able to let James find his shots from the most efficient spots on the floor and have less on-ball time, and a similar principle should hold with Aldridge. A ton more spot-up looks and a lot of easy shots at the rim should do wonders for his individual efficacy, and this stuff puts even more pressure on defenses. He’s going to play more center at well, and his low-block prowess is something that wasn’t really exploited in Portland. He’s got some crafty moves down low and can finish with the best of them, and in the 2015 playoffs the Spurs were killer at setting up those types of looks for Tim Duncan. LaMarcus brings his more traditional skills as a passer and pick and roll man as well, and the Spurs love late shot-clock pick and rolls. Aldridge’s jumper should give more space to heady slashers like Parker and Ginobili that they didn’t have in years past.
Aldridge is a great fit defensively as well, especially in the current smallball-crazed league. LaMarcus is the rare big guy with the ability to hang with the smaller guys currently proliferating the 4 spot. He can switch a fair bit, and he’s lengthy and disciplined. His motor came under fire at times in Portland, but with a reduced offensive role he’s more likely to commit in full on the other end. San Antonio needs to contend with the Draymond Greens of the world, and Aldridge is a rare breed who can allow the Spurs to keep size on the floor without giving up too much on either end. It’s an interesting wrinkle for sure, and should keep the Spurs out of the predicament of having to rely on Boris Diaw when teams go small.
Things aren’t perfect. Tiago Splitter is a big loss, and the team now finds itself with only one real center on the roster, and it’s unclear whether David West has enough left to be the third big on a contending team, especially with Duncan’s age. The team is now rather thin in general, especially on the wing where Manu Ginobili may have to carry a bigger load than he’s cut out for. They’ll likely keep Patty Mills, who is a hugely effective backup point guard. Kyle Anderson is obviously still a question mark.
They might not be done making moves, and even as they stand they are clearly one of the league’s four best teams. This was a huge get for the Spurs, and they’re poised to be a legitimate title threat now and as they transition to the Kawhi Leonard era.
He Buzzes Like a Fridge
Note: There are things at play here bigger than basketball. None of this matters in comparison to Ty Lawson taking control of his personal life. Driving drunk is never, EVER, okay.
Rather surprisingly, Ty Lawson was one of the biggest names to move this offseason. For all the drama involved, there wasn’t a ton of actual player movement this summer. Lawson is a big acquisition if he can keep himself together, and adds dynamism to a legitimate Western Conference contender.
The Rockets are in a weird team-building space. They’re fresh off a playoff run in which they won two series, but were a quick out in the conference finals, and arguably should have been in the second round against the Clippers. They’re unquestionably a great team, but being great isn’t enough in this league. Teams have to be special, not just effective.
Effective is a good word to describe the Rockets in 2015. They employed a bland, uncreative offensive scheme with very little action other than endless James Harden pick and rolls and isolations. It worked, but it’s the type of thing good defenses will solve in the playoffs. Harden carried too big a load this year, and his defense suffered for it. This is exactly the space a guy like Lawson can contribute in, and the Rockets have been searching for this type of player for a few years now, with a failed pursuit of Goran Dragic and rumors of heavy interest in other point guards.
Lawson is a speedy, attacking type with a knack for slicing to the basket in transition and in the pick and roll. He graded out as one of the league’s top offensive points the past few years, and hops from one frenetic attacking team to another, which should make for a great fit. Lawson needs very little time to set up his crossovers for a pick and roll attack, and should be even more effective attacking a defense that James Harden has already warped. Harden loves the drive and kick game, and when Lawson is the recipient he can put his dribble creativity on full display. Lawson is borderline clairvoyant about setting up big men for easy finishes around the baseline and in the lane, and with new weapons like Dwight Howard, Terrence Jones, and Clint Capela to play with he should have a field day. He’s an electric player, and should be a shot in the arm for an offense that, while effective, lacked true punch at times.
The fit isn’t perfect, as Lawson struggles defensively and isn’t a notable shooter. Shooting 3s off the catch is something totally new for him, and it’s a skill that playing next to James Harden necessitates. Both he and Harden have less than stellar defensive reputations, and it’s entirely possible Lawson loses lots of minutes to Patrick Beverly especially in late-game situations. They can make it work, though, and Houston desperately needed a second creator.
This is not a homerun for Houston, and probably won’t allow them to break into the Western Conference elites. But it’s a clear upgrade, and strengthens their position as one of the premier second-tier teams. Health will continue to be a question, but Daryl Morey is on a roll right now and it’s easy to believe in what he’s putting together. Lawson showed huge maturity by accepting a non-guaranteed year to replace the last year of his current contract, and is saying the right things about getting clean and contributing to the Rockets. Here’s hoping it turns out well for all involved.
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Tiago Splitter was another piece on the move, mostly to clear space for the Spurs to sign LaMarcus Aldridge. He’s a good defensive player and a solid finisher on offense, although his lack of shooting range isn’t the best fit in Mike Budenholzer’s system. Splitter is a great fit next to Paul Millsap and Al Horford, though, and will be a huge bench upgrade and stands as the only real center on that roster. Atlanta’s bench was murdered in the playoffs, one of the biggest reasons they fell apart. Splitter will definitely help with that, and clearly fits the culture there as well.
Whether the Splitter acquisition can make up for the void left by DeMarre Carroll is another story. The Hawks are bullish on Sefolosha filling that role, and didn’t make much of a push to bring Carroll back on that salary anyway. It’s a bit of a strange move from a team that needed every piece working at maximum capacity, and it’s likely they’ll feel this loss come playoff time. Atlanta may not have another 60 win season in hand, but they can legitimately claim to be one of the top 4 or so teams in the conference, and another year with the same lineups can make that system hum even more effectively.
Carroll should be a nice piece for the Raptors, who have quickly become one of the most unpredictable teams in the conference. Carroll is going to play a lot of power forward, and probably has the smarts to take this role on. Toronto’s defense was atrocious most of last year, and Carroll will clearly be an upgrade there, although there’s a ceiling on how good a team can be with Jonas Valanciunas at Center. Losing Amir Johnson doesn’t help, as his presence was absolutely key to reigning in a young, undisciplined team last season, despite the health issues. Toronto lost a lot of ball-handling too, even if their decision-making wasn’t top-notch. They’re a wildcard, to be sure, but if Lowry and DeRozan can hold up for a full season they have a high ceiling. Carroll is a great signing that fits their long-term plan, and this offseason is a win because of that.
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Greg Monroe will be hopping a state border to man the Center spot for the Milwaukee Bucks. The situation in Detroit was bad before Stan Van Gundy arrived, and the relationship was too damaged to be resolved. Monroe wants to play center, and wants to be a featured big man. Milwaukee is a place for him to do that.
This isn’t a great move for the Bucks. Monroe can score in the post, but that’s pretty much the extent of what he can do. He has little shooting range, which contributed to some of Detroit’s problems. His defensive issues are exacerbated at the 5, where he’s slow footed and lacks shot blocking prowess. Playoff teams will take advantage of him in the pick and roll, and he may find himself losing minutes to John Henson when it’s said and done. Milwaukee did well by bringing back Khris Middleton and getting Grieves Vasquez, but blowing cap space on a guy who may not be a part of the future core doesn’t engender a ton of confidence. Monroe fits the age range of the Bucks core, but when so much of their identity is built on a frenetic switching defense, it’s hard to not see him as taking something away from that.
That said, the Bucks need scorers, and Monroe fits that bill. The spacing will be better than he’s ever seen with Jabari Parker and Giannis at the 4, and he’s a punchy offensive player on a team that lacks good options. His contract is short and tradeable, which is good news here.
We’re Still on the Payroll
The buzz this offseason was about players taking 1+1 contracts that would allow them to become free agents after the cap jumps next season. Kevin Love was one of the most interesting potential movers, as he is one of the few players who can command that type of leverage and never seemed very happy in Cleveland. Love chose long-term security, forgoing the TV max to sign a five year contract right now. This raises a lot of questions, most notably: how big a role did his back injury play in this decision? No one knows for sure, but rumors have been floating that the Cavaliers are open to dealing Love even as he signed this new contract. There are clearly on-court issues to figure out, and it’s curious that Love was so willing to commit given that there’s still no clear plan to build a star role for him in the offense. Kevin signed his new long-term deal, but seeing the contract through is by no means a given.
LeBron James was the lone player who did opt for a short contract to set himself up for a TV max, and rumors are he could command the league’s first $200+ million contract. Holy cow. James may or may not take a five year deal next summer depending on how far he wants to push this “leverage” angle. His buddy Tristan Thompson still finds himself without a contract even after Lebron agreed to terms. The power dynamics at play here are fascinating, but deserve to be covered in their own piece at a later time.
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The Pelicans did well to give Anthony Davis the Derrick Rose max, but some of their puzzling moves make me wonder whether the front office has a true plan. Omer Asik and Alexis Ajinca were both inked to long-term deals, moves that don’t entirely make sense with both Davis and Ryan Anderson on the roster. Ask received an exorbitant contract with an early termination option after a postseason in which he was entirely useless and saw his minutes cut almost to nil. Ajinca is a somewhat promising offensive player who has extreme height and length, but he’s still a project.
Here’s the key problem: the Pelicans play their best ball with Davis at center. There’s an argument to be made for keeping a center around for the regular season to preserve Davis’ body, but in the long term having two such guys on the roster is not ideal. Ask is a poor fit with new head coach Alvin Gentry and was a massive negative on the floor against the Warriors. The Pelicans are going to need a serious talent upgrade around their transcendent star, and it’s going to have to come externally. Signing both big men to these deals gets in the way of that, especially when Asik’s contract doesn’t look tradeable.
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Draymond Green is one last interesting name to mention, as he inked a less-than-maximum extension even after he was given permission to talk to other teams who surely would have offered him the max. It’s possible the Warriors sold him on the flexibility his lesser contract would allow, potentially bringing in more talent. That’s an extraordinarily tough sell for a young player with Draymond’s attitude, so credit to the Warriors for pulling this off. They could potentially have serious cap room to work with next summer.
Rooting for Goliath 